Economists

I read Malcolm Berko's column the other day in our local newspaper:

Dear Mr. Berko: Can you explain in simple English who Joseph Schumpeter was and what this economist was talking about when he wrote about the industrial collapses and changes in employment and production?

What do you think of economists, especially Schumpeter, who many people seem to be quoting?

E.L., Waukegan, Ill.

Dear E.L.: I don’t like economists, who are some of the most useless people on the planet.

The economists I know are cross-dressers, drive Volvos, tend to be anti-social, their shoes squeak even when standing till, their cologne smells like Juicy Fruit, and they have the emotional range of Formica.

Former Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Alan Greenspan, whose hobby is teaching cats to swim underwater, is a perfect example. As I’ve been telling audiences since 1998, "He ain’t the crispiest Dorito in the bag.”

I laughed out loud.

Also had to look up Joseph Schumpeter on Wikipedia to read who he was and what he though. However, I resisted the urge to buy any books.

Price of oil

Thanks to Wiki for the image.

It is a bottle of oil in case you can't figure it out. My brother has a bottle of oil like this but I didn't have an image of that one so I thought I'd use this one from Wiki since it was reasonably easy to get.

I came to live with my Mom and Dad in November, 1998 even though I did not know then that I had moved.

Funny that sometimes we've moved on and don't even realize it until later.

Yesterday, May 20, 2009, the price of oil at about 11 a.m. central time according to CNBC was nearly $62 per barrel.

I've read various predictions about the future price of oil. Some prognosticators wrote that it would fall to $25 per barrel or maybe lower. Some think it will go back above $100 per barrel and maybe even $200 or higher.

Anyone want to guess what it was in December, 1998?

I'll tell you: $8.64 per barrel.

That's according to this site.

If you distrust that then here's a link to the Energy Information Administration of the United States page: Weekly United States Spot Price FOB Weighted by Estimated Import Volume (Dollars per Barrel). The number is a little different but close enough I guess.

What's the point of this post?

Well, recently there's been a lot of concern over our local economy in the event the price of oil plummets downward. When I heard the concern I thought I remembered that oil was at a really low price when I returned to Oklahoma but I had to look it up.

I guess it is one of those perspective things.

President Obama and Leadership

Tuesday evening I watched President Obama's speech and subsequent press conference.

Wednesday morning I resumed my Bible study. I am now in Judges.

Now I am thinking about leadership.

There was certainly a notable lack of good leadership in Israel and the people paid dearly because of it. The Bible hides nothing but relates it all whether good or bad.

But what about our own leadership?

I liked President Obama's press conference. For one thing I like the fact that he held one. And I liked that the speech part was short and to the point. I liked that he took questions from the press corps. I thought his answers were too long although I understand the subject of our economy is exceedingly complex. I thought the questions were irritatingly shallow. I don't know if they are screened or not.

The President and I have different perspectives. I would do things differently if I were working on these problems. On the other hand I do recognize that the problems facing the country are quite severe. I think it would be unconscionable for us to do nothing. But there are probably as many "what to do" ideas as there are people. But we have one President at a time and we all participated in our system a few months ago that put Mr. Obama in office. So these are his problems now to solve.

But I am not so interested right now in his solutions as I am in his effort to lead us.

I think he has done pretty well so far.

For one thing he is setting what I consider to be a very good example.

In the press conference he did not do a lot of finger pointing. In fact he admitted there were many reasons why our current situation exists. He exercised a lot of self-control while admitting that he was indeed angry. He even said that anger and outrage were not going to solve anything. He was very serious and yet projected calm assurance and optimism.

I think one of the first things a leader has to do is set a good example. I think he has done this admirably well. It is too bad that so many on either side of the President fail to follow his example. But at least he's made a start and that's better than nothing at all.

He laid out in summary fashion the problems and briefly discussed the solutions and then gave a reason why he had made his choices. Obviously there will be many who disagree with him as he stated. So I think he projected a certain amount of wisdom in dealing with the problems.

He was encouraging but certainly not Pollyannish.

At the same time he has big goals especially about reforming health care. I, for one, cannot and will not defend the current health care system. And I say that based on my own experience with it for the last decade. As far as I am concerned the way we do things now is nearly insane. I am very willing to give some other ideas a chance.

I think the President shows courage and perseverance to continue to reach for new solutions in the health care area.

I also like the fact that he is remaining faithful to his promises and I like that he is loyal and faithful to his staff. I think those are marks of leadership.

So at this point I think this man, Barak Obama, is showing good marks of leadership and I think he deserves the chance to put his plans into action.

Another mark of leadership is recognizing when you're wrong and adjusting course. We may have already seen some of that with this President but generally it is way too early to know.

That remains for the future. But I am encouraged so far.

Economy

I think the fundamental problem is that there is an excess of just about everything. There is too much credit and too many houses and too many cars and too many stores and too many restaurants and on and on.

In a way there is too much because we have been too successful. I had this friend once who lived in another country. We shared a few pictures and one I sent him was of my son's home. My friend wrote me back asking if all of us in Oklahoma lived so luxuriously. My son's home at the time was very nice but would not be considered luxurious by any means. But that exchange made me think about how much we take for granted about how we live.

Then there is political influence. We have a mixed economic system. There is surely market forces at play but there is also political pressure.

And there is greed and corruption and lust and all the other vices with which we humans are afflicted.

But it is a system and like all systems it seeks equilibrium.

I think we are in one of those really out of balance periods now. The excess is going to have to be absorbed and purged. Credit is undergoing rapid balancing right now. The credit producers that survive will be better. But not all will survive.

There are too many cars and too much capacity for making cars and selling cars and most everything else about cars. Change is underway. There will be fewer cars and less capacity when the process is over.

There are too many houses but the excess will be absorbed eventually. In the meantime that industry will change.

There are too many stores but soon there won't be.

It is not a pain free process. It is not an instant process either.

The government can help make things easier and even attempt to point things one way or another. I personally think that government action will not really change the process that much either for good or bad.

And personally I would just as soon not have to go through all this at all. I don't like going through tornadoes either. But they just are and I have no choice about it.

When the process is over then we will already be in the process of building new things to excess. Maybe it will be electric cars or hydrogen fuel cells or some new kind of nanotechnology material or machines or whatever. Maybe we'll have too many Kindles and Net books. I don't know what but I know we'll make too many.

And about 70 years from now we'll go through this all again. Well I won't but my grandchildren will.

That's what I think.